Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Current Trend |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | 🟢 Firm |
| 🇪🇸 Spain | 🟢 Firm |
| 🇬🇷 Greece | 🟢 Firm |
| 🌏 Southeast Asian | 🟡 Weather risk |
| 🚢 Freight Costs | 🟢 Increasing |
| 📦 Availability | 🟡 Tightening |
| 📈 Our Market View | 🟢 Bullish |
Rice Market Update – July 2026
Several factors are driving a more positive rice market
After several months of weak market sentiment, the rice market is showing the first signs of renewed activity. Rather than being driven by a single event, this change is the result of several factors occurring simultaneously.
An increase in freight costs, expectations of reduced planted areas in both Italy and Greece, concerns about the potential impact of El Niño on Cambodia, Thailand and other Southeast Asian rice-producing countries, together with significant purchasing activity from several importing countries, have all contributed to a more active market and firmer price indications.
Italy: lower availability than previously expected
In Italy, some paddy rice varieties have already been largely sold out, particularly Italian round grain rice Omega and Centauro and Sunrose.
For several other varieties, it is becoming increasingly clear that carry-over stocks may be lower than initially expected. As a result, negotiations are taking place at higher price levels, reflecting a gradual improvement in market confidence.
Milling activity is increasing
Another interesting signal comes from the by-products market.
The increased availability of rice by-products suggests that milling activity is gradually recovering, indicating that rice mills are becoming more active in processing the remaining stocks.
If this trend continues, current market dynamics could create a multiplier effect over the coming weeks, pushing prices higher for some varieties that still appear to be undervalued.
Our Market View
Although uncertainty remains, current indicators suggest that the market is entering a more balanced phase after months of cautious sentiment.
Supply availability, weather developments in Southeast Asia and freight costs will continue to be the main factors influencing price movements during the coming weeks.
Published: 02 July 2026
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