Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Current Trend |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | 🟡 Uncertain |
| 🇪🇸 Spain | 🟡 Long B area down |
| 🇬🇷 Greece | 🟡 Long B area down |
| 🌏 Southeast Asian | 🟡 Weather risk |
| 🚢 Freight Costs | 🟡 High, easing |
| 📈 FAO Rice Price Index | 🟢 +4.7% YoY |
| 📊 Our Market View | 🟡 Watchful |
Rice Market Update – September 2026
Italy approaches harvest with several open questions
The 2026 Italian rice harvest is about to begin. Despite a growing season marked by drought and hailstorms, crops overall appear on track to deliver a volume broadly in line with the average of recent years.
Definitive figures on harvested quantities, yields per hectare, and industrial milling yields are not yet available. The hope is that the harvest and processing stages will not bring negative surprises after a season that has already tested growers.
Quality control comes into sharper focus
Particular attention will need to be paid to quality, and specifically to analytical checks on Arsenic, Cadmium and Nickel levels. The high temperatures recorded in July and August, combined with water rationing in some growing areas, make monitoring these parameters even more important this year, especially in light of the recently defined maximum reference values for Nickel.
Cultivated area: round grain varieties gain further ground
Looking at the varietal mix, no major shifts stand out compared with the previous three campaigns, with one notable exception: a strong increase in the area planted with round grain varieties.
The latest sowing survey confirms this growth in round grain rice, alongside a reduction in the area planted with the Roma group (CL 145) and the Long B group. Overall, this looks less like a structural transformation of Italy’s varietal profile and more like a series of adjustments in planted area.
A challenging campaign for Italian rice
The outlook for Italian rice remains complex. National production will once again have to compete with highly competitive foreign supply, both from the EU and from extra-EU origins. One factor that could, at least partly, ease pressure on prices is the elevated cost of freight, which is making supply from foreign markets more expensive.
The main unknown of the new 2026/2027 campaign is likely to be price formation for the Long B varietal group. In both Spain and Greece, the area planted with Long B is lower than in the previous harvest. Combined with import freight costs that remain elevated, this could weigh on sourcing dynamics and, consequently, on price formation.
International markets stay dynamic
The global rice market also remains particularly dynamic. In some regions, the climate risk linked to El Niño is once again a factor to watch.
According to the FAO’s August report, world prices rose broadly last month, beyond the impact of logistics costs alone. The FAO Rice Price Index stood at around 108.4 points in July, up 4.7% year-on-year.
In Asia, Indica prices have generally held firmer. Thailand is the exception, where subdued demand and currency depreciation have pushed quotations lower. In India, prices remain supported by robust sales despite a weak rupee. Vietnam has reached its highest levels in 19 months, in a context of rising costs, shrinking stocks and delayed harvests.
The US market also shows signs to watch, mainly on the supply side: plantings are at their lowest in a decade. In MERCOSUR, planting decisions remain conditioned by weather and by lower economic returns. On pricing, Brazil and Uruguay are broadly stable, Paraguay shows a slight increase, while US quotations have declined amid still-weak market demand.
Our Market View
The new campaign opens against a backdrop of significant uncertainty. In Italy, production volumes and quality outcomes will be decisive in defining actual product availability, while on the commercial side, competition from foreign supply will be the main driver of price direction.
Among the varietal groups, Long B currently looks the most exposed to international dynamics and could become one of the key points to watch throughout the 2026/2027 campaign. We will be following closely how harvest results, industrial yields, logistics costs and international quotations evolve over the coming weeks, as these will progressively sharpen the picture for the new season.
Published: 03 September 2026
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